之一。但这种担心是错误的。我们不太可能看到大规模失业；相反，工人们将转向新的经济部门—尽管有转型的阵痛—就像一直如此。真正的风险是，机器人会把我们太多的人推入不那么具有社会生产力的工作—尤其是那些在营销方面的工作。

➤➤ The fear that robots, or more generally smart software, will put us all out of work is one of dominant economic memes of our time. But that fear is misplaced. We’re unlikely to see mass unemployment; rather, workers will shift into new economic sectors — albeit with transition pains — as has always been the case. The real risk is that the robots will push too many of us into less socially productive jobs — especially those in marketing.

让我们来考虑一下ATM机。与许多人所认为的相反，1990年代自动取款机的广泛采用并未大大减少对银行计票员的需求。自动取款机使银行分行更容易操作，并使银行能够雇佣更多的员工，包括计票员。

➤➤ Let’s consider the ATM. Contrary to what many people think, the widespread adoption of automated teller machines in the 1990s didn’t significantly diminish the demand for bank tellers. ATMs made bank branches easier and cheaper to operate, and that led banks to hire more staff, including tellers.

这些计票员在计算现金和处理存款方面的作用比以前要小，它们是怎么做的呢？经济师James Bessen解释说：“他们在与银行客户打交道方面，他们的市场能力和人际交往能力变得更加重要。”所以转型—ATM机确实是有效地将银行出纳机的工作变成了更多的一个营销人。他们是银行所谓的客户关系团队的一部分。”

➤➤ These tellers play a smaller role in counting cash and handling deposits than before, so what are they doing instead? Economist James Bessen explained: “Their ability to market and their interpersonal skills in terms of dealing with bank clients has become more important. So the transition — what the ATM machine did was effectively change the job of the bank teller into one where they are more of a marketing person. They are part of what banks call the ‘customer relationship team.’”

从广义上讲，这种转向营销的做法不仅仅是银行计票员。更多的法律工作是通过智能软件完成的，但是培养客户端关系从来就不太重要。医疗助理的一些功能正在自动化，但医院和医生仍在努力改善患者体验，并达到新客户。亚马逊Inc.的仓库使用机器人将商品下架，但有人必须说服消费者购买这些东西。

➤➤ This shift toward marketing, in the broad sense of that term, isn’t just about bank tellers. More legal work is done by smart software, but cultivating client relationships has never been more important. Some functions of medical assistants are being automated, but hospitals and doctors are still trying to improve the patient experience and reach new customers. Amazon Inc. warehouses use robots to pull goods down off the shelves, but someone has to persuade consumers to buy the stuff.

以上这些具体的例子，要考虑人工替代的一般逻辑。机器和软件往往很擅长“制作东西”，而且越来越多的是在提供明确定义的服务时，比如当Alexa为你安排一个包。但机器在开发广告宣传、宣传产品或公司、或以迷人的方式在家门口向你打招呼时，并不是有效的，因为在餐厅里，即使你在iPad上订购，也经常会这样做。这些活动将在很长一段时间内仍然是人类的所在。

➤➤ Above and beyond these specific examples, consider the general logic of labor substitution. Machines and software are often very good at “making stuff” and, increasingly, at delivering well-defined services, such as when Alexa arranges a package for you. But machines are not effective at persuading, at developing advertising campaigns, at branding products or corporations, or at greeting you at the door in a charming manner, as is done so often in restaurants, even if you order on an iPad. Those activities will remain the province of human beings for a long time to come.

劳动力向营销迈进了多少？可以肯定的是，大量的商业说服力是有用的。营销会让消费者了解新产品及其属性，或者让消费者相信一款产品比另一个产品更好。是营销让我停下来看棒球，转到比较精彩的NBA。有时候广告的存在—甚至除了任何直接的信息价值之外—让产品变得更加愉快。如果一个特定的篮球sneaker与詹姆斯·詹姆斯有关，通过代言和电视广告，一些人会喜欢穿这种运动鞋。

➤➤ How much is this shift of labor into marketing a step forward? To be sure, a lot of commercial persuasion is useful. Marketing informs consumers about new products and their properties, or convinces them that one product is better for them than another. It was marketing that got me to stop watching baseball and switch to the more exciting NBA. Sometimes the very existence of an ad — even apart from any direct informational value — makes a product more enjoyable. If a particular basketball sneaker is associated with LeBron James, through an endorsement and TV commercials, some people will enjoy wearing that sneaker more.

这一切都说了，很多营销是零或负的游戏。每个企业都试图将客户从其他品牌中脱颖而出，而客户与产品的最终匹配通常与人们的需求紧密相关，更多的是用于这些商业战争，而不是理想的社会效率。我的银行可能会让我感觉更好，在那里成为一名客户，但其服务并不比最接近的竞争对手优越，如果有的话。也许可乐真的比百事可乐更好，或者反之亦然，但不是那么好—而且数十亿都花在了试图说服消费者进行切换或者另一个开关的时候。根据一项估计，可口可乐去年在全球广告上花费了大约40亿美元。

➤➤ That all said, a lot of marketing is a zero- or negative-sum game. Each business tries to pull customers away from the other brands, and while the final matching of customers to products is usually closely attuned to what people want, more is spent on these business battles than is ideal for social efficiency. My bank might make me feel better about being a customer there, but its services just aren’t much superior to those of the nearest competitor, if at all. Maybe Coke really is better than Pepsi, or vice versa, but it’s not that much better — and billions are spent trying to persuade consumers to make one switch or the other. By one estimate, the Coca-Cola Co. spent about $4 billion last year on global advertising.

更多的部门表现规模经济，因此一些垄断利润，更高的浪费广告支出可能会上升。尽管消费者在一定程度上享受到了这些panderings，但附加值也有限制。随着工作人员从服务台转到问候客户，许多食客会更加受欢迎。去银行也将是一个更有趣的经历，因为过去计算现金的柜员现在已经被培训，以便我们如何管理我们的储蓄。不过，这是一个令人无常的愿景，我们将如何处理由机器人释放的人力劳动。还有一个更黑暗的愿景：一些营销人员可能会面临欺诈行为，例如富国银行的员工，他们注册了不知名客户的新帐户。

➤➤ The more a sector exhibits economies of scale, and thus some monopoly profits, the higher wasteful advertising spending can rise. Although consumers enjoy these panderings to some degree, there’s a limit on value added. As workers shift from serving tables to greeting customers, many diners will feel just a little more welcome. Going to the bank will also be a more fun experience, as tellers who used to count cash are now trained to sell us on how the bank is managing our savings. Still, that’s an uninspiring vision of what we will do with the human labor freed up by robots. There’s a darker vision too: Some of those marketers may look toward fraud, such as the Wells Fargo employees who signed up unknowing customers for new accounts.

如果你在日常生活中看到很多机器人，在新闻故事中看到很多，但在公布的统计数据中没有巨大的生产力收益，不要感到惊讶。这完全是美国经济的权利。